Two days after the dual suicide attack , killed nearly a hundred people in Ankara, the Turkish capital, the Islamic-conservative government of the country blames the Islamic state, “No. 1 suspect” according to Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. But thousands of people marched Sunday against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, they consider the true responsible for the massacre.
Didier Billion, Deputy Director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (IRIS), considers it possible the involvement of secret cells linked to the State.
Didier Billion: The assumptions are four in number. The Turkish political authorities have raised the possibility that it is the Islamic state or the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party). I think it is not very credible. Regarding the Islamic State nothing is impossible, because we know their methods of action, but I do not think it is now in their agenda to target attacks in Turkey itself. As regards the PKK, it is quite absurd, it’s a Pavlovian reaction of the Turkish authorities (…) It is not the operative modalities of the PKK, that has conducted terrorist acts, but rather focused on police, Members of the army, and almost never on civilians in the middle of a crowd.
Second, it appears that the demonstrators who had gathered in Ankara are close HDP activists, the party of the people for democracy that is somewhat the legal front of the PKK. It also mentioned the existence of a tiny group of extreme left Turkish (…) I do not think it’s very believable.
The fourth assumption is called the deep state in Turkey, which is composed of some clandestine cells, hidden in the workings of the state apparatus, particularly within the Army but also the police and known to have committed attacks, destabilization operations, (…) to try to mend the ranks around the power. Obviously I have no evidence of tangible evidence, but there would be a political logic.
Should we fear more attacks?
This is quite possible. First, there is the polarization of the political situation is very worrying, very serious. To the east and southeast of Turkey we see civil war scenes, very violent clashes. Some small towns have virtually seceded pronouncing their ‘democratic autonomy’. There are cities with barricades erected by relatives young PKK. We are in a very worrying situation, in addition to the regional situation in Iraq, Syria … It is not at all impossible, unfortunately, that other attacks might be committed.
When there was the attack Suruç last July, I explained that it was probably the first attack of a series. Unfortunately, there was a kind of macabre confirmation yesterday. The President Erdogan continues to use what I call the strategy of tension, ie it tries to polarize the political positions in Turkey. (…) The purpose is to try to round up some of the nationalist electorate for the next election.
Can elections be held in this climate?
At the moment there is no evidence of the Turkish authorities along the lines of a cancellation but the question is legitimate. The attack, the enormous pressure … (Editor’s note: the elections will be held on November 1st said Monday Turkish Prime Minister). There are two months to mid-September, there have been nearly 300 attacks against the offices of the HDP (…), all over Turkey, baseball bats by armed thugs, iron bars. At the same time, there was the attack on the newspaper Hürriyet , one of the main draws in Turkey. All this is not a very serene atmosphere – this is the least we can say – for there to be a serene adversarial. (…) It does not mean that in any stage of cancellation and postponement of elections (…) but it is a possibility we can not rule.