VIDEO – An EU summit Sunday will validate the proposals of Greece before granting a short-term aid.
This new defilade, source of hope and frustration at the headquarters of Europe, almost empty the summit of the Euro, convened a few hours later, a good part of his rationale: a clear choice between granting emergency credit to conditioning a real change in Greece and an inexorable slide into exit from the euro after the fall of one or more major Greek banks.
Rather than substance, the Heads of State and Government of the euro began to agreement on a procedure with a precipitate calendar. Today, Athens must apply for a third bailout, leaning on a specific list of budget commitments and reforms. Thursday and Friday, the ex-Troika EU-ECB-IMF should confirm. Saturday, the Eurogroup would give its political green light before a new high, twenty-eight this time. The Greek parliament and the Bundestag would in stride consulted for approval.
The urgency is funding in the coming days, the Greek banks closed and soon dry. But also that of the Treasury of Athens, certainly unable to meet on July 20 in a maturity of 3.5 billion. Without one or the other, Greece may be driven in the dark scenario Grexit. Bank failure, paralysis of the economy, the emergence of a parallel currency, euro exit
This is for the time that a virtual life. The prerequisites for launching a rescue plan “are not met, otherwise we would not have felt the need to meet again next Sunday, Merkel stressed after the camera. It is urgent for the coming days, but the heart of the discussion, what are the perspectives and time frames of long-term commitments “made by Athens.
The new fact is that Germany is prepared to give a brief and probably last reprieve. As François Hollande awaits decisions “within a week” to keep Greece in the euro area. Prior to the Summit, the President, the Chancellor and Jean-Claude Juncker had gathered one last time to reason the leader of Syriza.
In the coming days, all is not to return. It remains on the table a recovery plan and reform, one that the Greek Prime Minister had refused haughtily there ten days, just before starting the rupture referendum. There is a week Alexis Tsipras also asked the MES – the European Fund – a loan of 29 billion euros to cover the maturities of Greece until 2017. The IMF recently calculated the real need for a 3rd bailout 50 billion over three years at minimum.
On these directions Francois Hollande, supported lip by Angela Merkel, has put all his energy to build the fragile compromise. But not without consideration. On the Greek side, the attitude is now “less vengeful, more positive,” it is argued from French sources. It would be the paradoxical effect of personal success that Alexis Tsipras won with success in the referendum. The Greek opposition itself eventually bring him his political support to come to discuss in Brussels.
Under pressure, it is perhaps not impossible. Meanwhile, probably swell the ranks of those who, in the euro, are resigned in advance to the clean cut of Grexit. “If the Greeks are not able to push major proposals and implement them, we will soon be able to help more” warns the Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. “The fate of Greece will be decided in Athens, not in Brussels.” Vice President of European Commission, which has long played the good offices Valdis Dombrovski was even clearer in the morning: “We do not want the Grexit, but no one can be excluded if the trust is not in appointment. ”
From left to right, Angela Merkel, Jean-Claude Juncker, Mario Draghi, Francois Hollande, Mariano Rajoy, Alexis Tsipras and Matteo Renzi, at the summit of the eurozone Tuesday night Brussels.