The Grexit could reduce the amount of IT spending in Greece by 3.7 billion by 2019, says IDC. For 2015, the decline would be 14% and 18% for 2014.
The analyst firm considers however that “European IT spending would be affected somewhat, but not enough to move rates expected growth in negative territory. ‘” The IT spending forecast for the euro zone would increase from 1.6% growth to 0.8%. and the snowball effect with struggling countries like Portugal, Ireland, Italy, or Spain is considered “unlikely”.
remains that the failure of negotiations would bring a Greek exit of the Eurozone IDC judge, who then bet on a sharp drop in GDP. “As a result, IT spending in Greece would be down significantly,” says IDC. “The industrial sectors including IT spending could be negatively impacted by the Grexit scenario are the public sector, financial services, and the B2C market. The tourism and hospitality industry, a sector that accounts for almost 15% of Greek GDP, suffers from the uncertainty of the period. Nevertheless, devaluation of a new national currency could attract foreign long term, “explains Andrea Siviero, IDC.
Spending cuts, although agreement
If an agreement was reached between Greece and its institutional creditors, now Greece in the Euro zone, IDC predicts still a double digit decline of Greek IT spending in 2016, but to a lesser extent than in the first scenario. Lower spending would be 7% in 2015 and 12% in 2016.
From this perspective always, the 2016 IT spending in Western Europe are expected to grow by only 1% instead of 1, 6% expected previously by IDC.
Since 2007, IDC says that a third of IT spending was cut in Greece. If Grexit is chosen by the Greek and European leaders, IDC predicts that the decline in spending over the period 2007-2016 would increase to 50%, a decline of nearly $ 2 billion. IDC considers that Greek spending on IT accounted for 0.5% of total IT spending for Western Europe (the hardware segments, software and services).