perilous exercise than trying to size the market SVOD 2020 when we already struggling to estimate the actual size of the world leader in late 2015 .
In its new forecast, Digital TV Research estimated that Netflix will end the year 2015 to 70,420,000 subscribers. No bowl, Netflix has just published its results: it’s 75 million subscribers that are displayed on the meter. In the field of SVOD, making predictions is often read in a crystal ball!
By correcting the volume of Netflix subscribers, we get a market of 165 million subscribers at the end of 2015, an increase of 47 million in 2015 of which 17 million just for Netflix which therefore gives 36 % of global growth this year.
The report “ Global Forecast SVOD ” estimates that 145 million new subscribers s’ added between 2015 and 2020, almost doubling the size of the market. According to Digital TV Research, this growth will be mainly in China (20 million subscribers), the US (22 million), Japan (9 million) and India (over 7 million). Netflix has still not reached an agreement in China, where there are already services like SVOD LeTV or PPTV which according to Pyramid Research comptabiliseront over 28 million subscribers at the end of 2016.
Digital TV Research anticipates that Netflix will have 115 million subscribers in 2020; For its part, Netflix announced that it was the milestone of 81 million subscribers by the end of Q1 2016. A goal that seems well within reach of the firm of Los Gatos, which is a tendency to over 12 million new subscribers for 4 years. Having achieved its goal of international deployment beginning in 2016 in more than 190 countries, Netflix could just recruit 5 million net new subscribers to reach 115 million subscribers by 2020. But could continue to grow at a faster pace, offering the former DVD salesman by mail a subscriber base of over 130 million subscribers.
Digital TV Research estimates that the world finally SVOD market including all stakeholders 200 countries could reach $ 26.7 billion in 2020, 10 times more than in 2010 and more than double the estimated turnover for 2015 ($ 12.3 billion). Netflix his side could see its revenue reach $ 12.2 billion in 2020, against 1.8 billion in 2010. For the year 2015, the turnover of Netflix is 6.13 billion.
What is certain is that the SVOD is playing an increasingly important role in the audiovisual market, causing a redistribution of roles but also financial balances.